In Conversation

01 December 2008 21:44 BST

Ending the junta

A word you would not immediately expect to be associated with the Burmese junta is 'surprising'.

But that is exactly how observes are describing the country's military rulers, with specific reference to their longevity.

Today the generals of Burma – officially the State Peace and Development Council – mark an unofficial 20th birthday of sorts.

Twenty years ago to the day the 8888 uprising began in Rangoon, its pro-democracy message spreading across Burma before being crushed the following month.

Despite further mass protests, widespread international condemnation and the recent natural disaster of Cyclone Nargis, the junta has defied expectations to remain in power.

Amnesty International's Burma researcher Benjamin Zawacki told inthenews.co.uk the generals had proven to be "shockingly resilient" over the past two decades, surviving pressure from within and without.

"We are constantly hearing rumours that this is the beginning of the end; that younger officers have different priorities, and most hope rests on the fact that the senior leadership is getting on age-wise."

But Mr Zawacki maintains the junta's ultimate downfall is a "matter of when and not if".

"I think all of us continue to be surprised; it can't last forever."

'Armed resistance'

London-based Burma dissident Ko Aung – who was 22 when he helped to organise the 8888 uprising – admitted the pro-democracy movement had failed to dent the junta.

"We really need to review our strategy, especially on the Thai-Burma border," he told inthenews.co.uk.

Ko Aung's admission comes with a warning; he says the failure of peaceful protests has led to a growing acceptance that armed struggle is the only solution.

"It is not really strong yet, we are asking the international community to meditate," he said.

He wants the international community to show willing to take the lead and push for change in his country, but claims the future of Burma ultimately lies in the hands of its people.

"If the UN cannot do it we must do it ourselves," he said. "We don't want the UK military to invade our country.

"An arms embargo – why are they not there?

"We hope that we can try to talk to the EU and the UN, but it is still very obvious in Burma that millions of people are starving."

Groceries, not guns

While committed peaceful protestor Ko Aung warns of the threat of civil war in Burma, the end of the junta could be sounded not by guns but by economics.

Last year's Saffron Revolution protests, which saw thousands of marchers and Buddhist monks take to the streets in the biggest challenge to the junta since 1988, were sparked initially by a sharp increase in the price of natural gas.

The double fuel and food price rises afflicting the rest of the world are hitting Burma especially hard following Cyclone Nargis in May, which devastated the rice bowl of southern Burma.

"People think to last fall and the protests led by monks, but prior to that it was people whose pocketbooks had been hit by increases in fuel prices," Mr Zawacki noted.

"Economic mismanagement with political persecution, that's a real recipe for change.

"But when and how is very difficult to predict."

United diplomacy

Later this month two high-ranking UN officials are due to visit Burma.

The secretary general's special representative Ibrahim Gambari will make his fourth trip to Burma, while human rights rapporteur Thomas Ojea is making his first.

Mr Zawacki said there had to be a "realistic expectation" of a tangible result following previous disappointments.

In the months following Mr Gambari's visits after the Saffron Revolution protests last autumn and Cyclone Nargis the detention of political prisoners has increased "rapidly".

In the past ten months there have been 900 new detentions, Amnesty International said – a 40 per cent increase on the previous year despite the junta giving assurances it was cooperating with the international community.

Mr Zawacki claims the UN risks appearing "complicit" with the generals unless it can reverse this trend.

"The prognosis isn't good," he added.

Protest now

Later today a protest is planned outside the Burmese embassy in London to petition for the release of 2,000 political prisoners still languishing in Burmese jails.

Amnesty International is drawing special attention to U Win Tin, the longest-serving political prisoner in Burma.

The human rights group says it would "cost the government nothing to release him".

"Instrumental as he was. At his age; what they would gain from releasing him would more than offset whatever they feel like they are gaining from behind bars," Mr Zawacki said.

U Win Tin is scheduled to be released next year, but there is a "sinister precedent" in the junta of extending deadlines.

And while the eyes of the world are fixed on the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics – being held on the auspicious date of August 8th 2008 – Ko Aung's thoughts are elsewhere.

"We must also give our respect and thoughts to the people who gave their lives in the 8888 protests."

Benjamin Zawacki and Ko Aung were talking to Matthew Champion.